IHS Jane´s Examines Post-Election Situation in Iran
International Desk
June 24, 2009
LONDON, UNITED KINGDOM – IHS Jane´s Security Editor Alex Vatanka commented on the post-election situation in Iran saying, "There are currently no signs that either camp in Iran´s election and political divide are preparing to concede or push for a broader agreement on how to proceed from the bloody stalemate.
"While the number of opposition demonstrators has subsided since the major crackdown by the security forces on 20th June, the continuation of street-level protests is very likely, and further acts of defiance against the state can be expected to emerge in the next few days as the leaders in the anti-Ahmadinejad bloc ponder their next steps." Vatanka continues, "There are already calls by opposition leaders for general strikes to be held throughout this week."
Mir-Hosein Mousavi, the main challenger to incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, remains unyielding in his demand that the results of the 12th June elections be declared void and new elections held.
"This represents an unprecedented and direct challenge to the authority of Iran´s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei who on 19th June made clear that he supports the re-election of Ahmadinejad and is prepared to use his position as the commander-in-chief to repress any popular mobilisation. Still, there are also reports about fissure among the senior ranks of Iran´s Islamic Revolution Guards Corp (IRGC – Sepahe Pasdaran-e Jomhoriy-e Eslami), explained Vatanka.
Some political personalities, members of the clergy and Iranian news outlets supporting Khamenei are now openly suggesting that Mousavi is an agent provocateur, accusations that are paving the potential path for Mousavi´s arrest and conviction as a counter-revolutionary. Mousavi, an individual who believes that state agencies under the control of Khamenei have systematically acted in favour of President Ahmadinejad, stated in his fifth open letter to the Iranian nation that he intends to continue to reject the findings of the Guardian Council, the vetting agency that has the final authority in relation to election results.
Nonetheless, the decisions of the Guardian Council can be overruled by Khamenei who directly or indirectly appoints the body´s 12 members. There are already growing calls among reformists for the issue of election irregularities to be decided on by the Expediency Council, a body that is nominally tasked to settle on the most appropriate policies for the Islamic Republic to pursue to safeguard the regime from internal and external pressures. However, the Expediency Council is headed by Ayatollah Ali-Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a long-standing opponent of the policies of Ahmadinejad. Khamenei will most likely seek to prevent the issue from being transferred from the Guardian Council to the Expediency Council.
Vatanka concluded, "The effects of the political upheaval that Iran has witnessed since the 12th June election are yet to be seen, but will most certainly have major consequences as the Islamic Republic has never experienced such a split at the top echelons of power in its 30-year history. Moreover, it is also too premature to assume that the far-right faction headed by Ahmadinejad and supported by Ayatollah Khamenei have prevailed even at this early stage in the protests."
"While the number of opposition demonstrators has subsided since the major crackdown by the security forces on 20th June, the continuation of street-level protests is very likely, and further acts of defiance against the state can be expected to emerge in the next few days as the leaders in the anti-Ahmadinejad bloc ponder their next steps." Vatanka continues, "There are already calls by opposition leaders for general strikes to be held throughout this week."
Mir-Hosein Mousavi, the main challenger to incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, remains unyielding in his demand that the results of the 12th June elections be declared void and new elections held.
"This represents an unprecedented and direct challenge to the authority of Iran´s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei who on 19th June made clear that he supports the re-election of Ahmadinejad and is prepared to use his position as the commander-in-chief to repress any popular mobilisation. Still, there are also reports about fissure among the senior ranks of Iran´s Islamic Revolution Guards Corp (IRGC – Sepahe Pasdaran-e Jomhoriy-e Eslami), explained Vatanka.
Some political personalities, members of the clergy and Iranian news outlets supporting Khamenei are now openly suggesting that Mousavi is an agent provocateur, accusations that are paving the potential path for Mousavi´s arrest and conviction as a counter-revolutionary. Mousavi, an individual who believes that state agencies under the control of Khamenei have systematically acted in favour of President Ahmadinejad, stated in his fifth open letter to the Iranian nation that he intends to continue to reject the findings of the Guardian Council, the vetting agency that has the final authority in relation to election results.
Nonetheless, the decisions of the Guardian Council can be overruled by Khamenei who directly or indirectly appoints the body´s 12 members. There are already growing calls among reformists for the issue of election irregularities to be decided on by the Expediency Council, a body that is nominally tasked to settle on the most appropriate policies for the Islamic Republic to pursue to safeguard the regime from internal and external pressures. However, the Expediency Council is headed by Ayatollah Ali-Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a long-standing opponent of the policies of Ahmadinejad. Khamenei will most likely seek to prevent the issue from being transferred from the Guardian Council to the Expediency Council.
Vatanka concluded, "The effects of the political upheaval that Iran has witnessed since the 12th June election are yet to be seen, but will most certainly have major consequences as the Islamic Republic has never experienced such a split at the top echelons of power in its 30-year history. Moreover, it is also too premature to assume that the far-right faction headed by Ahmadinejad and supported by Ayatollah Khamenei have prevailed even at this early stage in the protests."
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